An aggregate analysis of the AKP vote and electoral continuities in the Turkish party system

ABSTRACT: This article aims to analyze the dynamics of the party system in Turkey by focusing on the AKP and construct an aggregate-level analysis of the electoral environment it operates in using regression models (1950–2011). Findings show strong patterns of continuity in the electoral geography of Turkey since the 1970s, mapping electoral strongholds of center-right, ultra-nationalist and pro-Islamist parties compared to those of the AKP. As of 2015, the AKP seems to have achieved a great deal of stabilization electorally and there is now handful of data that can identify and answer some of the questions related to the AKP, especially regarding its ideology, origins, electoral strength and appeal.